北臺區域整體運輸規劃：旅次特性調查與供需分析　107黃

　　北臺區域包含臺北都會區(臺北市、新北市)、宜蘭縣、基隆市、桃園市、新竹縣、新竹市、苗栗縣等8個縣市，本年度工作重點為旅次特性調查與分析，透過旅次特性調查及屏柵線交通量調查，掌握區域內旅次行為之變化，並完成目標年社經預測及現況運輸系統供需分析，以及大數據資料與信令資料於模式應用與驗證構想研析等，以利後續年度進行北臺區域模式建構，完成北臺區域供需預測分析，並研擬北臺區域整體運輸發展策略。相關研究成果如下： 1.    未來年北臺區域社經發展趨勢 (1)    北臺人口占比預測未來仍持續上升，其中臺北市、新北市、桃園市及新竹縣市皆持續成長。 (2)    所得及汽機車數持有預期維持緩慢成長。 (3)    北臺觀光人口預期仍持續上升，於民國125年達到最高。 2.    北臺旅次特性觀察與分析 (1)    北臺區域運具使用仍以機車、汽車等私人運具為主。 (2)    各旅次目的家-工作(HBW)以私人運具為主；家-學校(HBE)以大眾運輸使用占比相對其他旅次目的高；非家(NHB)旅次之步行占比相較其他旅次目的高。 (3)    平均旅次長度以臺北都會區最高約為4.81公里/旅次。 (4)    北臺區域各縣市中，旅次率介於1.77~1.97次/人，整體旅次率以新竹1.97次/人為最高，基隆1.77次/人為最低。 3.    北臺區域信令資料分析 以旅次產生率、旅次長度，與旅次分布等因子，進行旅次特性調查資料驗證，經檢視信令資料與原始家訪調查結果特性相近，惟信令資料在應用上仍有諸多限制，後續應用仍待進一步觀察。

　　英文內容大要：The Northern Taiwan area includes eight counties and cities, which are Taipei metropolitan areas (Taipei City and New Taipei City), Yilan County, Keelung City, Taoyuan City, Hsinchu County, Hsinchu City and Miaoli City. The focus of this year’s work will be on the survey and analysis of trip characteristics. Through the survey of trip characteristics and the screen-line traffic volume, we will be able to grasp the changes of trips within the area complete the forecast of the target year’s socioeconomics analyze the supply and demand of the existing transportation systems The big data and cellular signaling data are applied in the model and the verification conception is proposed to facilitate the construction of the Northern Taiwan regional model in the follow-up years, to complete the analysis of supply and demand forecasts in the Northern Taiwan area, and to develop a strategy for the overall transportation development in the Northern Taiwan area. The relevant research achievement are as follows: 1. The future trend of the socioeconomics (1) The proportion of population in the Northern Taiwan area is expected to continue to rise in the future for most of the counties and cities, including Taipei City, New Taipei City, Taoyuan City and Hsinchu City/County. (2) The revenues and the number of car/motor ownership are expected to continue to grow slowly (3) The tourism population in the Northern Taiwan area is still expected to continue to rise, reaching to the peak in year 2036. 2. Observe and analyze of trip characteristics (1) The private vehicle, such as cars and motors, are the main mode choice of the Northern Taiwan area. (2) The main mode choice of HBW trips is private car. HBE trips use higher proportion of public transportation than other trips. NHB trips have the highest proportion of walking among all trips. (3) The average trip length in Taipei metropolitan areas is 4.81 km per trip, which is the highest among all areas. (4) The average trip rate is around 1.77 to 1.97 trips per person. Hsinchu area has the highest (1.97 trips per person) and Keelung area has the lowest (1.77 trips per person). 3. The significant characteristics such as trip generation rate, trip length and trip distribution are applied to verify the survey data of trip characteristics. By examining the result, the cellular signaling data is similar to the home-interview survey results. However, follow-up applications of cellular signaling data are yet to be observed as it still has many limitations in application.